The State of the U.S. Poultry Market: Trends and Insights for October 2025

As the food service and protein industries brace for another dynamic fall season, the U.S. poultry market reflects a landscape shaped by shifting consumer demand, evolving production dynamics, and the ongoing pressures facing protein supply chains. From chicken and turkey to eggs, each segment tells a story of volatility, surprises, and adaptation in the face of changing market fundamentals. In this in-depth exploration, we’ll break down the current state of the poultry market across its major categories, offering insights for buyers, sellers, and stakeholders navigating this key sector as we approach the final stretch of 2025.

Chicken: Prices Under Pressure, Sellers Adapt to Softer Demand

Steep Discounts and Shifting Price Expectations

The U.S. chicken market, particularly for further-processed items like boneless breast meat, is experiencing significant downward pressure. Over the past week, wholesale prices for chicken breast meat have fallen at a steady clip—declining by $0.01 per pound per day. Sellers have responded to this soft demand by offering deep discounts, and deal-making now spans a wide range of quotations in both boxed and combo channels. Liquidity in the market is high, but it comes at the cost of lower realized returns for suppliers.

This pressure isn’t limited to just boneless breast meat. Chicken tenders, while not as heavily discounted, are still seeing more product offered than can be absorbed by the current demand environment. To keep product moving and avoid further build-ups in cold storage, sellers are embracing more flexible price expectations for tenders, echoing broader trends across the poultry sector.

Thighs, Legs, and Chunks: A Steadier, Yet Cautious Tone

By contrast, boneless, skinless thigh meat remains largely stable—though not immune to negotiation. Some buyers are successfully securing lower prices, especially on smaller volumes and less-sought-after sizes, but for the most part this category is described as “steady.” Sellers in this area are faring slightly better than their breast meat counterparts, but only because of a more balanced supply-demand equation.

Leg meat, however, continues to face downward price pressure. Ample supplies of whole legs, thighs, and drumsticks persist, and there is little sign of tightening inventories. Mid-size and large volumes are plentiful, with steady to moderate demand. Chunk meat and trim—secondary items often used in further processing or export—have managed to maintain their footing, but even here, retreating demand caused by lower boneless meat prices is beginning to dampen market activity.

Wings: A Tale of Three Markets

Perhaps most emblematic of the current market dynamics are chicken wings. Jumbo wings remain under the most pressure, facing increasingly visible inventories and less robust buyer interest. Medium wings are also seeing supply outpace demand, causing them to become more commonly available across the market. Yet, the smallest wings appear to avoid these extremes, moving at a stable pace with relatively little market noise.

Takeaway: Across the chicken segment, flexibility remains the order of the day. Sellers are making deals to avoid backlog as demand recalibrates post-summer, and buyers—particularly those who can act quickly—are in a position to secure sharp discounts across product lines.

Turkey: Tighter Than Ever, Buyers Outbid for Limited Supplies

Scarcity Rules the Day

While chicken sellers navigate a buyer’s market, the turkey sector presents a starkly different picture. Heading into the autumn season, turkey markets are unusually—and persistently—tight. Both fresh and frozen whole turkeys are scarce, with sellers firmly in control of negotiations. This scarcity is a function of both restrained production through 2025 and strong pre-holiday interest from retailers, food service, and institutional buyers anxious to secure supply for the peak season ahead.

Bone-in turkey breasts, a linchpin for both consumer and institutional formats, are fetching premium bids whenever small volumes appear on the market. While consumer-sized birds are quietly supported, institutional volumes trigger frenzied bidding due to the limited number of birds that fit these specifications.

Processor Confidence, Tight Inventories, and Scattered Pricing

Turkey processors are expressing strong confidence in their position. Many have worked to keep production constrained, benefiting from tighter inventories and less irregular offerings in the market. This means less risk of oversupply or discounting as the season progresses.

Pricing for turkey parts is more scattered but remains firm overall. Drumsticks—especially frozen—are attracting heightened attention, with increased bids for both near-term and longer-term deliveries. Livers are notably tight, reflecting both short supply and ongoing demand, while hearts and gizzards are seeing little excitement.

Breast meat and turkey tenders command the highest prices, reflecting robust buyer interest and limited availability. Thigh meat moves upwards on a trend of strong clearing prices, while other raw materials like breast trim, wing meat, and scapula remain steady due to restricted offerings.

MST (Mechanically Separated Turkey): Seasonal Slowdown

As poultry processors shift focus to higher-margin items for the fall season, demand for MST has eased, mirroring the broader seasonal ebb and flow in protein processing.

Takeaway: Those seeking turkey—especially heading into the critical Q4 period—face steep competition and a seller’s market, particularly for premium and institutional products. Planning ahead and building relationships with suppliers is more important than ever.

Eggs: Inventories Grow, Spot Values Weaken Amid Seasonal Drag

Plant-Grade Eggs Face Downward Pressure

The egg sector is marked by a dichotomy between retail-ready packs—holding or trading at supportive levels—and plant-grade loose eggs, which continue to face sharp downward pressure. Spot values for plant-grade loose eggs have plunged in recent weeks as inventories grow across multiple regions. This trend is driven by increased layer productivity and a midsummer pause in retail demand—a familiar pattern, reflecting both consumer vacation habits and food service slowdowns typical for the season.

Inventory Build, Support for Breaking Stock

Rising inventories have been tempered slightly by an uptick in interest for breaking stock eggs, which are processed into liquid eggs and other egg products. Renewed buying in this segment has slowed a previously sharp decline in commodity values, bringing most transactions back within published supportive price ranges. However, negotiated deals for egg products, particularly whole egg, are still trending lower, albeit at a slower pace than during the earlier part of the week.

Egg Products and Market Weakness

The tone remains weak overall, especially for liquid egg products. Whites and yolks continue to see price erosion, as the industry works through a summer glut and awaits the usual seasonal lift in demand that comes with back-to-school and major holiday preparation.

Takeaway: The egg market continues to feel the impact of oversupply and moderate summer demand. With the fall season approaching, market participants are closely watching for signs of renewed strength, but caution prevails for now.